China PE Market Forecast
Supply: The number of turnarounds will de4crease next week. The 60kt/a FDPE unit at PetroChina Lanzhou Petrochemical keeps in maintenance. The 100kt/a LDPE unit at Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical keeps in maintenance. The 120kt/a LDPE unit at Zhongtian Hechuang Energy will be parked in October, with undetermined restarting time. The 300kt/a PE unit at Pucheng Clean Energy is planned to be maintained for 30 days from Oct 15. The 300kt/a HDPE unit at PetroChina Jilin Petrochemical will be parked on Oct 24 for 7 days. The expected decreases in supply will be 14.4kt. The import volume is predicted to decrease next week.
Demand: In terms of the agricultural film, demand from shed plastic film users keeps high in peak season. Producers have accumulated a lot of orders to produce. The utilization at producers is high. Thus the demand for feedstock PE is high, giving support to the PE prices.
Overall, the upstream crude oil prices kept volatile, giving limited support to the PE prices. On the supply side, the increases in LLDPE futures prices drove the PE prices up this week. The demand for HDPE film and HDPE pipe was good, so the prices of these products increased. The supply of other products was ample so far, so the demand kept stable. The growth speed of PE prices would be narrowed by the limited demand. The PE prices will keep volatile next week. The LLDPE prices will be RMB 9,600-10,300/mt.
China SM Market Forecast
The styrene supply at the main ports of East China is normal. China’s styrene units run normally, and the supply is stable. The stocks of downstream raw materials and products are low. However, as the slack season is coming, downstream enterprises show no interest to increase stocks. Hence, the overall demand goes tepid. The styrene prices on Huaxicun Commodity Contracts Exchange fluctuate vigorously. Styrene market players hold different stances. The styrene price may move agilely with the futures commodity market.
China Methanol Market Forecast
In the major producing areas, the methanol inventory level is a little higher, and downstream users maintain purchases on rigid demand. It could be predicted that local methanol prices may fluctuate downwards next week if the demand from olefin plants has no obvious improvement. In other inland areas, some ammonia-methanol coproduction units have been switched to produce liquid ammonia, given the rising ammonia profit. Thus, the methanol supply will stabilize. But the downstream demand is flat, and some low-cost methanol will continue to flow into the inland areas. Thus, local prices still have some downward potentials. The prices are estimated in the range of RMB 2,580-2,630/mt in Shandong and RMB 2,320-2,350/mt in Inner Mongolia next week.
In the coastal areas, the imported arrivals are limited before the end of the month, and the overall inventory is consumed quickly. Although the futures market has turned weak somewhat, some players are still reluctant to sell goods at low prices. It is predicted that the methanol market in the coastal areas may move sideways next week. The prices are estimated in the range of RMB 2,730-2,830/mt next week.