China PE Market Forecast
Supply: The number of turnarounds will increase next week. The 60kt/a FDPE unit at PetroChina Lanzhou Petrochemical keeps in maintenance. The 100kt/a LDPE unit at Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical keeps in maintenance. The 150kt/a PE unit at Shanghai Golden Phillips Petrochemical will be restarted on Oct 14. The HDPE unit at SECCO is expected to restart on next weekend. The 250kt/a LDPE unit at Zhongtian Hechuang Energy will be parked in October, and its 120kt/a LDPE unit is parked temporary, with undetermined restarting time. The 300kt/a PE unit at Pucheng Clean Energy is planned to be maintained for 30 days from Oct 15. The expected decreases in supply will be 17.4kt. The import volume is predicted to decrease next week.
Demand: In terms of the agricultural film, demand from shed plastic film users keeps high in peak season. Producers have accumulated a lot of orders to produce. The utilization at producers is high. Thus the demand for feedstock PE is high, giving support to the PE prices.
Overall, the upstream crude oil prices fluctuated frequently, but within a narrow range, so the support to PE market was limited. On the supply side, although PE inventory increased during the National Day holiday, the consumption pace of PE after the holiday was well. The number of maintained units increased. Yet most PE users had finished the replenishment in advance. From the demand side, demand for PE is predicted to be high in peak season, which will support the PE market. However, the environmental protection supervision is strict in Hebei in October, which may affect the consumption volume of PE. To sum up, China’s PE prices will fluctuate narrowly before the 19th National Congress. The LLDPE prices will be RMB 9,350-10,050/mt
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China SM Market Forecast
The crude oil price trend took on a V-shape tend this week, with the highest and lowest level respectively at $51.42/bbl and $49.10/bbl. The data from various reports and news intensified the uncertainties and fluctuations in the crude oil price. Discussions on the extension of the oil production cut plan triggered the downtrend in the crude oil price. Russia’s conservative expectations weighed heavily on the crude price. However, positive words released by the OPEC and Saudi Arabia reversed the downtrend of the crude price. The verbal stimulus from OPEC and Saudi Arabia played an important role in inspiring the crude price
China Methanol Market Forecast
After the holiday, the downstream purchase was flat and the mainstream dealing prices of methanol slipped. It is predicted that the operating rates of methanol and downstream units may decline next week, influenced by the 19th National Congress. The inventory level in the major producing areas may continue to rise, while the demand from the olefin plants is stable. In other
inland areas, the methanol supply is rising slightly, but the downstream purchase can hardly improve a lot. Overal, The methanol prices in the inland areas still have small downside potentials next week. The prices are estimated in the range of RMB 2,670-2,750/mt in Shandong and RMB 2,400-2,430/mt in Inner Mongolia.
The trading atmosphere in the coastal areas is recovering gradually, but some players still lack confidence, influenced by the slipping futures prices. It is predicted that the methanol market in the coastal areas will mainly fluctuate downwards next week, and the prices are estimated in the range of 2,700-2,790/mt.